Japan’s cooperation is essential in this type of scenario because it could change China’s calculations of the military and diplomatic risks of coercion or aggression. Rather than scrambling to respond to a fait accompli, as occurred in this game, the United States and Taiwan should prepare to implement coordinated, whole-of-government deterrent measures quickly and ensure immediate consequences for Chinese coercion or aggression short of war.
This strategy will require advance planning and communication of joint responses and defenses against coercion and territorial aggression. 3 Doing so will help identify ways to make a territorial fait accompli by China-such as the seizure of Dongsha-too unpalatable to consider, while also communicating the U.S. The United States and Taiwan must begin coordinating today to build a credible deterrent against limited Chinese aggression or coercion toward Taiwan. Indeed, discouraging China from seizing Taiwanese territory before it happens is the most salient lesson of the game. and Taiwan teams, the game reaffirmed the difficulty of rolling back territorial aggression of this kind.
With few viable coercive options and the onus of escalation falling on the U.S. 2 More aggressive military responses risked escalation to war, which both the U.S. 1 Punitive non-military options, such as economic sanctions or information campaigns, took too long to produce effects and appeared too weak to compel China to abandon its gains. team had to push its forces far forward in ways that were risky and would be difficult to sustain. The team representing China avoided further escalation given its first-mover advantage, constrained territorial gains, and geographic proximity. However, the game found numerous areas where preparation and multilateral coordination-particularly in concert with Japan-could deter limited Chinese aggression against Taiwan.ĭuring the game, the teams representing the United States and Taiwan struggled to compel a Chinese withdrawal from Dongsha without escalating the crisis. Worryingly, the game found few credible options for pushing China to abandon Dongsha and return to the status quo. To explore potential policy and strategy options to prevent such a calamity, the Gaming Lab at CNAS wargamed this scenario with Taiwanese, American, and regional experts.